This year has been an unusually quiet hurricane season, and experts expect that trend to continue.
According to a new two-week hurricane forecast from a team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University. The team's latest forecast shows a 60% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin from September 3-16, a 30% chance of normal activity and just a 10% chance of above-normal activity. This is typically the climatic peak of the season, the report said.
An abnormally low rate of tropical cyclone development continues in the Atlantic, with the period from August 12 to September 3 being the longest quiet period in 56 years. While an average season produces seven named tropical storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane, so far we have seen only five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
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Dr. Phil Klotzbach, co-author of the CSU report, said: FOX Weather It is stated that there are various factors that prevent tropical cyclone development.
“I think the biggest issue has been the location of the monsoon trough over Africa,” Klotzbach said. “We've had anomalous cooling in the Gulf of Guinea region associated with a trend toward the Atlantic Niña (although we don't meet the formal definition). So there's a strong cross-equatorial (sea surface temperature) and sea level pressure gradient, and that helps push the monsoon trough very far north if you're looking for hurricane activity.”
In other words, despite predictions earlier this year that high sea surface temperatures and the return of La Niña would lead to an above-average season, conditions have not been favorable for hurricane development.
There’s still a chance the latter part of the season could turn things around; the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. “Large-scale environmental conditions appear relatively unfavorable for the next ~7 days, but become more favorable for tropical cyclone activity by mid-September,” the report says.
But for now, the forecast looks calm.