In life, and especially in TCGs, time matches forward. No sooner did Disney Lorcana’s first expansion Rise of the Floodborn launch, than we began speculating about Chapter 3. We don’t often take the time to look backwards when it comes to TCGs, but we lose important context if we don’t try to remember the history. Lorcana is new, but there’s already so much we can learn just by looking back at the release of the first expansion.
What’s most interesting to me about the launch of Rise of the Floodborn, and the spoiler season that preceded it, is the difference between expectation and reality. When it comes to the cards that are making the biggest impact on the game right now, it isn’t exactly what we expected. Exploring what is and isn’t working in the current meta compared to what we thought would happen can give us a better idea of what to expect and how to plan in the future.
I’m fascinated by the flashy, high-impact cards that many expected to be huge disruptors, but have yet to make any kind of splash in the meta game. Our first introduction to the expansion was a set of Floodborn cards, RotF’s namesake, that immediately seemed like they were destined to become major players. Cinderella, Stouthearted features the new Resist keyword, and has the rule-breaking ability to challenge ready characters. Belle, Hidden Archer has the devastating ability to force the opponent to discard their entire hand. Both cards scream ‘this changes everything,’ neither card is seeing much play at all.
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It’s easy to understand why Ravensburger chose these cards to showcase the expansion. They represent the Floodborn theme, the new ideas in the expansion, and they’re both excellent examples of Lorcana’s imaginative world and stunning art direction. The community was overwhelmingly impressed, and some were terrified of what these characters, and in particular Belle, would do to the game.
Broadly speaking, we overestimated the impact these cards would have, and they aren’t nearly the only ones. Almost all of the eye-catching cards with big effects, the imaginative Floodborns, and, critically, the cards that demanded a high price early on, turned out to be duds. Flynn Rider, His Own Biggest Fan; Cheshire Cat, From the Shadows; Alice, Growing Girl; Shere Khan, Menacing Predator; Cogsworth, Grandfather Clock; Beast Relentless, and even Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo are all cards that seem like game changers, but haven’t yet found their spot in the game – if they ever will.
Some Amazing Looking Cards That Aren’t Seeing A Lot Of Play
The sort-of exception here is Hiram Flavershim, Toymaker – a card that seems busted and, as it turns out, is busted. I say sort-of only because Hiram is not a flashy card. It isn’t a Floodborn or a beloved character, it’s just a random side character from an underappreciated movie that happens to be the one turning the meta upside down right now. That’s one thing I love about Lorcana, but again, it’s the exception.
The decks that are dominating the meta right now are, perhaps unsurprisingly, upgraded versions of the same decks that dominated the meta before. This means that the highest-impact RotF cards are the ones that slot into those decks, instead of forming entirely new ones. The Steelsong deck is now using Cinderella, Ballroom Sensation, a one-cost 1/2 that can help sing songs earlier and easier. It’s a beautiful card with solid utility, but no one expected a rare like that would be demanding as much as $20. Same goes for Teeth and Ambitions, an unassuming damage spell that even comes with a negative effect on your own board. It’s exactly what Ruby/Amethyst control needed for the early game, so even though it’s just a rare it’s getting a huge price bump.
I hope every set has true game changers like Hiram (though hopefully they’re not just breeding more control archetypes like Hiram) but as we approach each new expansion it can be useful to remember how RotF played out. Characters like Belle, Hidden Archer and Beast, Relentless are unbelievably powerful in a vacuum, but in a meta dominated by control decks, cards like that are just too slow to be useful.
Any of these cards can rise up in future sets. Belle, Hidden Archer doesn’t currently have a one- or two-cost target to shift into on curve. Small additions can have a big impact on the viability of every card.
What we’ve learned is that game-changing cards are few and far between, and if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Early investors in future sets would be wise to consider how new cards fit into the archetypes that are already successful, rather than speculate on potential new archetypes that may or may not arise.
Of course, when it comes to value, playability isn’t everything. Belle wouldn’t be one of the most expensive Legendary characters if that was the case, considering she’s, I’ll say it, unplayable right now. Those who recognized that Singer Cinderella was going to be hot property when she was only $8 on day one were laughing when she climbed up to $20 a week later. This week’s big box release should bring all the prices down, but we’re coming up on week three of Rise of the Floodborn, and you could be playing with the cards you want rather than watching the market. Keep that in mind for the next expansion, and you’ll give yourself a huge head start on the competition.
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